#20 ValueStream
$005930.KS $TEP $IVFH $DR.TO $CZBS $BOC $RRR.UN $TRUX $CRMT $BFCC $FTLF $OMCC $LRFC $GFP.TO $SWIM, $LESL , $HAYW $SHC $GTX $STHO $SEAT $CZBS $ENDI $ZEG.l
Disclaimer
This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice; we recommend always verifying the ideas presented here and conducting your own research, as there may be errors in interpretation and translation.
Today we have compiled the following theses:
Samsung Electronics - $005930.KS - Feb 12, 2025 by Lyrical Asset Managemen
Teleperformance - $TEP - Feb 12, 2025 by Lyrical Asset Management
Innovative Food Holdings - $IVFH - OTC - Feb 10, 2025 by River Oaks Capital
Medical Facilities - $DR.TO - Feb 10, 2025 by River Oaks Capital
Citizens Bank - $CZBS - OTC - Feb 10, 2025 by River Oaks Capital
Boston Omaha - $BOC - Feb 10, 2025 by River Oaks Capital
R&R REIT - $RRR.UN - Feb 10, 2025 by River Oaks Capital
Truxton Trust Company - $TRUX - OTC - Feb 10, 2025 by River Oaks Capital
America’s Car Mart - $CRMT - Feb 10, 2025 by River Oaks Capital
BankFirst - $BFCC - OTC - Feb 10, 2025 by River Oaks Capital
Fitlife - $FTLF - Feb 10, 2025 by River Oaks Capital
Old Market Capital - $OMCC - Feb 10, 2025 by River Oaks Capital
Logan Ridge Financial - $LRFC - Feb 10, 2025 by River Oaks Capital
Greenfirst Forest Products - $GFP.TO - Feb 10, 2025 by River Oaks Capital
Pool Basket ( $SWIM, $LESL , $HAYW ) - Feb 03, 2025 by McIntyre Partnerships
Sotera Health Company - $SHC - Feb 03, 2025 by McIntyre Partnership
Garrett Motion - $GTX - Feb 03, 2025 by McIntyre Partnership
Star Holdings - $STHO - Feb 03, 2025 by McIntyre Partnership
Vivid Seats Inc. - $SEAT - Feb 07, 2025 by Emeth Value Capital
Citizens Bancshares - $CZBS - Feb 10, 2025 by Cedar Creek Partners
ENDI Corp - $ENDI - Feb 10, 2025 by Cedar Creek Partners
Zegona - $ZEG.l - Feb 16, 2025 by Singular Asset Management
Samsung Electronics - $005930.KS - Feb 12, 2025
Industry Leader: Operates in Device Solutions (memory chips, foundry), Consumer Electronics (TVs, appliances), and Mobile Communications (phones).
Memory Chip Dominance: Largest global producer of DRAM/NAND, historically a technology leader with high R&D investment.
AI Impact: AI-driven demand has boosted the HBM memory market, where Samsung lags behind SK Hynix but is investing heavily to catch up.
Technological Catch-up: Samsung plans to close the HBM gap by end of 2025, leveraging its 70% higher R&D spend than competitors.
Market Growth: HBM market tripled to $15B in 2024, expected to continue growing, offering long-term upside for Samsung.
Valuation
Undervalued: Trades at 10x earnings and below book value.
Strong Balance Sheet: 25% of market cap in cash/investments.
SOURCES:
Lyrical Asset Management
https://lyricalam.com/
https://blog.lyricalam.com/insights/2024-international-review-letter
https://twitter.com/awellington18
Feb 12, 2025
Q4 2024
Teleperformance - $TEP - Feb 12, 2025
A Global leader in Business Process Outsourcing (BPO).
Seen as a commoditized call center business vulnerable to AI.
Achieved 3% organic revenue growth in 2024, exceeding Accenture’s flat growth.
Largest BPO player but holds only a high-single-digit market share in a fragmented industry.
9% organic growth rate over the past decade, with only 28% of the market outsourced today.
Only 50% of revenue from customer service, with just 5% in basic chat services—focus on complex, high-margin work.
90% customer retention rate, flexible cost base, and mid-teens EPS growth over the years.
Valuation
P/E Multiple Collapse: Dropped from 8x to 5x in 2024, despite financial performance.
Trades at 5x earnings, compared to Accenture at 27x forward P/E.
SOURCES:
Lyrical Asset Management
https://lyricalam.com/
https://blog.lyricalam.com/insights/2024-international-review-letter
https://twitter.com/awellington18
Feb 12, 2025
Q4 2024
Innovative Food Holdings - $IVFH - OTC - Feb 10, 2025
Specialty Food Distributor: IVFH connects niche food producers with broadline distributors (Sysco, US Foods, etc.), enabling national sales.
Market Position: Acts as a critical intermediary, leveraging long-term industry relationships to source, vet, and distribute specialty food products.
CEO-Led Transformation: Bill Bennett (appointed 2023) refocused the company on core operations, divested non-core assets, and optimized costs.
Three-Phase Strategy:
Stabilization – Fixed pricing, cut costs, and exited unprofitable businesses.
Growth Foundation – Expanded vendor partnerships and added tuck-in acquisitions.
Scaling – Leveraging acquisitions and asset-light operations to drive cash flow.
Acquisition Synergies: Past acquisitions (Artisan Specialty Foods, Golden Organics, LoCo Foods) doubled revenue post-integration.
New Revenue Driver: Secured a gourmet cheese contract with a top 10 U.S. retailer, expected to contribute significantly.
Management and board (50%+ ownership).
Debt Elimination: Planned $15–$18M sale-leaseback of Pennsylvania warehouse to clear $9M debt, leaving $6M+ excess cash.
Tax Shield: $20M in Net Operating Losses (NOLs) enhances future free cash flow.
High Upside, Low Downside: Strong financial improvements and strategic acquisitions set the stage for significant revaluation.
Valuation
Market cap: $95m
Valuation Metrics: 8–9% free cash flow yield (~11–13x P/E).
Tuck-In Acquisitions: Buying small distributors at 3–5x free cash flow, with potential for revenue doubling post-acquisition.
SOURCES:
River Oaks Capital
https://www.riveroaks-capital.com/
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1AzlkTuu8wXXIQ020u2prwK_YDpSFKf-p/view
https://twitter.com/Whit_Huguley
Feb 10, 2025
Q4 2024
Medical Facilities - $DR.TO - Feb 10, 2025
Owns majority stakes in three surgical hospitals (South Dakota, Oklahoma, Arkansas) and a surgical center (California).
Activist-led turnaround plan executed by CEO Jason Redman: halted acquisitions, sold non-core assets, cut costs, and focused on shareholder returns.
Competitive advantage due to limited supply of surgeon-owned hospitals (grandfathered in before 2010 regulation).
Specializes in high-margin procedures (Spine, ENT, Orthopedics), making hospitals attractive to buyers.
No hospitals are officially "for sale," but management is open to lucrative deals.
Black Hills Sale: Sold for $194M (~12-14x FCF), $105M proceeds to Medical Facilities.
Share Buybacks: $80M CAD tender offer (~20% of shares), on pace to buy back 50% by 2025.
Dividend: 2.5% yield (~$6M annually).
Valuation
Market Cap: $230M
Sum-of-the-Parts Valuation:
Sioux Falls: Generates $30M+ FCF, potential value $350M+, MF's share ~$135M post-tax. We own 51%
Arkansas: Generates $15M+ FCF, potential value $155M, MF's share ~$60M post-tax. We own 51%
Oklahoma: Generates $7-$8M FCF, potential value $60M, MF's share ~$30M post-tax. We own 64%
Undervaluation:
Current stock price undervalued by 30-35% based on SOTP analysis.
9-10% FCF yield, 10-11x P/E post-Black Hills sale.
Full hospital sales + buybacks could drive valuation 70%+ higher.
SOURCES:
River Oaks Capital
https://www.riveroaks-capital.com/
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1AzlkTuu8wXXIQ020u2prwK_YDpSFKf-p/view
https://twitter.com/Whit_Huguley
Feb 10, 2025
Q4 2024
Citizens Bank - $CZBS - OTC - Feb 10, 2025
Led by CEO Cynthia Day, the bank prioritizes financial discipline and prudent capital allocation.
Over $95M in cash at the holding company level, more than its entire market cap.
Repurchased over 10% of shares, increased dividends ($2M/year), and maintained conservative lending practices.
Management and the board own ~30%, aligning interests with shareholders.
Conservative approach to lending and acquisitions ensures long-term profitability.
50% efficiency ratio and >20% return on book value.
Valuation
Market cap: ~$90M vs. book value of ~$170M (adjusted for ECIP loan).
Generates $15M+ FCF annually (16-17% FCF yield, 5-6x P/E ratio), expected to exceed $20M.
Trades well below intrinsic value despite a ~70% share price increase since investment.
SOURCES:
River Oaks Capital
https://www.riveroaks-capital.com/
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1AzlkTuu8wXXIQ020u2prwK_YDpSFKf-p/view
https://twitter.com/Whit_Huguley
Feb 10, 2025
Q4 2024
Boston Omaha - $BOC - Feb 10, 2025
Holding company with three core businesses: Billboards, Broadband, and Insurance.
All three divisions have now reached scale, allowing for higher free cash flow generation with minimal capital expenditure.
CEO Adam Peterson is a strong capital allocator with a long-term focus, enabling efficient execution across all business units.
Billboards (Link Media): 6th largest in the U.S. (7,600 billboards), well-positioned in a fragmented market with strategic acquisition potential.
Broadband: 32,000 fixed wireless customers, 30,000 fiber passings, expanding via organic growth and government contracts.
Insurance (General Indemnity Group): Now a profitable surety bond provider, reducing costs and improving efficiency.
Other Investments: Holds major stakes in Sky Harbour (private aircraft hangars) and Crescent Bank (subprime auto lending).
$20M share buyback program, with only $1.5M used so far, expected to increase.
Valuation
Market Cap: $445M, significantly undervalued based on asset valuation.
Billboards appraised at $300M+, Sky Harbour stake valued at $155M, exceeding the entire market cap.
Broadband segment $200M in investment and is expected to generate $12M+ FCF this year, growing to $25M+.
Insurance business valued at $35M+, Crescent Bank stake at $25M+, cash reserves of $29M, and $73M in NOLs.
Total conservative asset valuation: $760M+, implying ~70% potential revaluation.
FCF yield: ~10% (P/E of 10), with broadband FCF expected to increase by $10M+ in 1-2 years.
SOURCES:
River Oaks Capital
https://www.riveroaks-capital.com/
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1AzlkTuu8wXXIQ020u2prwK_YDpSFKf-p/view
https://twitter.com/Whit_Huguley
Feb 10, 2025
Q4 2024
R&R REIT - $RRR.UN - Feb 10, 2025
Owns 16 budget hotels (Red Roof Inns & Hometowne Studios) in the eastern U.S.
Plans to nearly double its hotel portfolio at 9-10% cap rates, but no acquisitions in 2024; one hotel sold for $5.7M.
Occupancy rate fell (69.2% → 66.5%), revenue per room dropped ($65.37 → $63.37).
Free cash flow declined to ~$3-$4M (from >$5M) due to inflation affecting low-income customers.
Founder & management own over 90%, preventing dilution via equity raises.
Exploring joint ventures as REIT funding is challenging due to interest rate uncertainty.
Valuation
Market cap: $35M, price per shares 0.18 CAD book value per share: $0.20 CAD.
2019 appraisal valued assets at $0.33 CAD/share (85% higher than current price).
8-10% free cash flow yield, 10-12x P/E ratio.
$11.5M in cash (~30% of market cap), recently paid a 4% special dividend.
Potential upside if hotel acquisitions resume; fair value estimated at $0.25 - $0.33 CAD/share.
SOURCES:
River Oaks Capital
https://www.riveroaks-capital.com/
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1AzlkTuu8wXXIQ020u2prwK_YDpSFKf-p/view
https://twitter.com/Whit_Huguley
Feb 10, 2025
Q4 2024
Truxton Trust Company - $TRUX - OTC - Feb 10, 2025
Wealth management firm with banking services, catering to ~260 high-net-worth families in Nashville.
Provides an integrated financial service model, disrupting a traditionally fragmented industry.
Wealth management AUM at $2B, expected to reach $3B, driving continued expansion. With that FCF should grow to $27-30M+
CEO Tom Stumb and management hold significant ownership.
Conservative lending with a zero-loss loan history over 20 years; a profitable complement to wealth management.
ROE: 20% avg. over 20 years
Shareholder Returns: $12M returned in 2024 (dividends + buybacks), 65% of FCF.
Valuation
Market Cap: $210M
Free Cash Flow Yield: 9-10%
P/E Ratio: 10-11x
SOURCES:
River Oaks Capital
https://www.riveroaks-capital.com/
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1AzlkTuu8wXXIQ020u2prwK_YDpSFKf-p/view
https://twitter.com/Whit_Huguley
Feb 10, 2025
Q4 2024
America’s Car Mart - $CRMT - Feb 10, 2025
Deep subprime auto lender with 155 dealership locations.
CEO Doug Campbell and COO Jamie Fischer are restructuring operations, improving underwriting, and cutting costs to scale efficiently.
Subprime auto sector downturn due to "Covid sins" (pandemic-driven price inflation of used cars, extended loan terms, and increased defaults).
American Car Center & U.S. Auto Sales bankrupt; CRMT is leveraging industry dislocation for acquisitions.
Loans grew from ~$600M to $1.5B, requiring new financing (securitizations, inventory-backed borrowing).
Acquired Texas Auto Center & Central Auto Sales at depressed valuations; dedicated M&A team formed for future acquisitions.
Recovery signs emerging, but short-term pressures persist; management focused on long-term market dominance.
Capital Allocation: Plans for acquisitions and share buybacks to drive shareholder value.
Valuation
Market Cap: ~$400M.
Asset Valuation Floor: ~$550M (potential 40% upside).
Earnings Potential: Historical ROE of 12-15% suggests $65M–$80M in free cash flow to equity.
Trades at 5-6x P/E, with a 16-20% FCF yield.
SOURCES:
River Oaks Capital
https://www.riveroaks-capital.com/
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1AzlkTuu8wXXIQ020u2prwK_YDpSFKf-p/view
https://twitter.com/Whit_Huguley
Feb 10, 2025
Q4 2024
BankFirst - $BFCC - OTC - Feb 10, 2025
Aims to expand assets from $2.8B to $5B through acquisitions and organic growth.
CEO Moak Griffin & CFO Luke Yeatman have a strong track record—grew assets from $700M to $2.8B since 2010. They own 25%
Seeking new deals in Oxford, MS & Birmingham, AL, with potential uplisting to NASDAQ for institutional interest.
$75M in cash at the holding company, $26M+ in annual free cash flow to equity, expected to grow.
$10M annual share buyback program to close valuation gap
The market still does not understand the value that has been created with the ECIPs.
They have used the ECIP to buy banks at depressed valuations.
Valuation
Market Cap: $220M, trading at ~65% of adjusted book value ($335M+).
Undervalued: Book value per share of $60+, but market has not fully priced in ECIP benefits.
12-14% free cash flow yield, 7-8 P/E ratio, and 35% of market cap held in cash.
SOURCES:
River Oaks Capital
https://www.riveroaks-capital.com/
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1AzlkTuu8wXXIQ020u2prwK_YDpSFKf-p/view
https://twitter.com/Whit_Huguley
Feb 10, 2025
Q4 2024
Fitlife - $FTLF - Feb 10, 2025
Fitlife develops and markets nutritional supplements under 13 brands.
Turnaround Success: CEO Dayton Judd revitalized the company, growing revenue to $60M+ with strong free cash flow.
Strategic Acquisitions:
Mimi’s Rock Corp: High-margin Amazon business generating $5M+ in free cash flow.
MusclePharm: Acquired at a discount, rebuilding retail partnerships for growth.
Judd prioritizes disciplined capital allocation, cost control, and strategic reinvestment.
elective acquisitions, expanding online sales, and improving operational efficiency.
Growth Potential:
Expected $12M-$15M FCF by 2025.
Potential for higher margins and revenue growth from MusclePharm and online expansion.
Capital Allocation: Judd owns 50%+, favors share buybacks over dilution.
Acquisition Target: Attractive to private equity or strategic buyers.
Valuation
Market Cap: $150M
Free Cash Flow: $10M-$12M (8-10% FCF yield)
Valuation Multiples: Trades at 10-12x P/E
SOURCES:
River Oaks Capital
https://www.riveroaks-capital.com/
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1AzlkTuu8wXXIQ020u2prwK_YDpSFKf-p/view
https://twitter.com/Whit_Huguley
Feb 10, 2025
Q4 2024
Old Market Capital - $OMCC - Feb 10, 2025
Formerly a subprime auto lender, now an investment holding company.
Core Asset: Owns 56.5% of Amplex Internet, a rural broadband provider in Northwest Ohio.
Strategic Advantage: First-mover in fiber deployment in small towns with limited competition.
Funding: $21.3M USDA loan at 2% interest + $3M investment from OMCC.
Management: Led by CEO Jeff Royal; strong execution team at Amplex.
Capital Allocation: Plans to reinvest cash reserves into further Amplex expansion or other strategic acquisitions.
Free Cash Flow to Equity: $4M now, projected to grow to $7–8M within 2 years.
Tax Advantage: $50M+ in NOLs shielding future earnings.
Leverage Opportunity: No traditional bank debt; potential to use low-cost financing to enhance returns.
Valuation
Market Cap: $40M.
Cash Reserves: $29M post-shareholder buyout.
FCF Yield: 10–12%, improving to 15–18% with further investments.
P/E Ratio: 8–10 currently, potentially 5–7 after reinvestments.
SOURCES:
River Oaks Capital
https://www.riveroaks-capital.com/
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1AzlkTuu8wXXIQ020u2prwK_YDpSFKf-p/view
https://twitter.com/Whit_Huguley
Feb 10, 2025
Q4 2024
Logan Ridge Financial - $LRFC - Feb 10, 2025
Business Development Company: Provides financing to small and midsize private companies.
Acquisition: Portman Ridge acquiring LRFC, approved after regulatory delays.
Cost Synergies: Expected to generate $4M in annual savings.
Valuation
Market Cap: $65M.
Merger Offer: ~$25 per share (lower than the expected $28-$30 per share).
Expected Return: ~20% over two years.
Intrinsic Value Estimate: Still believed to be at least $28-$30 per share.
Transaction Structure: Share exchange with Portman Ridge.
SOURCES:
River Oaks Capital
https://www.riveroaks-capital.com/
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1AzlkTuu8wXXIQ020u2prwK_YDpSFKf-p/view
https://twitter.com/Whit_Huguley
Feb 10, 2025
Q4 2024
Greenfirst Forest Products - $GFP.TO - Feb 10, 2025
Owns four lumber mills in Ontario, benefiting from lower log costs and high-quality wood.
Led by Paul Rivett, the company has streamlined operations, sold non-core assets, and invested $50M in mill upgrades.
Ontario’s log costs are significantly lower than British Columbia’s, improving cost competitiveness.
Interfor owns 13% but is not in a position to acquire the company currently.
Stronger financial position than peers, with extended debt maturities and removed liabilities from the Kap paper mill.
In November, GreenFirst raised ~$25M CAD through a rights offering, with Bob Robotti contributing $20M CAD.
Valuation
Market cap: $80M, but mills alone could be worth $200M+ based on industry benchmarks.
Additional assets: $25M in duties, $14M pension surplus, and $120M in tax loss carryforwards.
If lumber prices normalize at $550-$600 per MBF, mills could generate $20M in annual FCF, implying a 25% FCF yield (P/E ~4).
Positioned for high upside with limited downside risk, aligning with an asymmetric investment thesis.
SOURCES:
River Oaks Capital
https://www.riveroaks-capital.com/
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1AzlkTuu8wXXIQ020u2prwK_YDpSFKf-p/view
https://twitter.com/Whit_Huguley
Feb 10, 2025
Q4 2024
Pool Basket ( $SWIM, $LESL , $HAYW ) - Feb 03, 2025
Cyclical Downturn at Bottom: New pool construction is near its lowest level since the financial crisis, with pool starts at ~6% of single-family home starts vs. the historical average of ~11%.
Macro Factors Depressing Demand: Sharp Fed tightening, record-low existing home sales, and the longest R&R spending decline outside of the financial crisis have negatively impacted the sector.
Early Signs of Recovery: Fed easing rates, R&R spending stabilizing, and pool market checks indicating a potential inflection point.
Investor Awareness Low: Many pool equities IPOed recently, leading to market mispricing due to a lack of familiarity with the pool cycle.
Significant Upside Potential: If market trends normalize, pool-related companies are well-positioned to benefit from a rebound in demand.
Valuation
Depressed Stock Prices: Pool-related equities are pricing in unrealistically low earnings expectations.
Historical Correlation Supports Re-Rating: Pool construction typically moves in line with single-family housing; current valuations imply a continued downturn that is unlikely to persist.
Attractive Risk-Reward: If demand stabilizes and interest rates decline, these stocks are expected to re-rate significantly higher.
SOURCES:
McIntyre Partnerships
https://www.mcintyrepartnerships.com/
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/08wmp784ks7j6i5u48a4m/McIntyre_Partnerships_Q4_2024_Letter.pdf?rlkey=m3k8qmj4rn0cedynuhry7t36e&e=1&st=xdda0upr&dl=0
https://twitter.com/Mc_Partnerships
Feb 03, 2025
Q4 2024
Sotera Health Company - $SHC - Feb 03, 2025
Duopoly Market Position: One of two major outsourced sterilization providers for medical devices and pharmaceuticals.
100% retention rate with top customers; high switching costs.
Historically 10% annual sales growth (recently slowed to 5%); ~55% EBITDA margin.
New litigation in California caused a market overreaction, significantly impacting the stock price.
Customer destocking headwinds are fading, with volumes expected to improve in 2025.
Valuation
Currently trades at <10x 2025 EV/EBITDA and 13x 2025 EPS, well below historical levels.
Legal Overreaction: Market assigns a $2B liability to California litigation, far exceeding past settlements ($408M in Illinois, $35M in Georgia).
Potential Revaluation: If legal concerns ease and growth returns, stock could reweight to historical multiples (~18x EV/EBITDA, 25x P/E).
SOURCES:
McIntyre Partnerships
https://www.mcintyrepartnerships.com/
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/08wmp784ks7j6i5u48a4m/McIntyre_Partnerships_Q4_2024_Letter.pdf?rlkey=m3k8qmj4rn0cedynuhry7t36e&e=1&st=xdda0upr&dl=0
https://twitter.com/Mc_Partnerships
Feb 03, 2025
Q4 2024
Garrett Motion - $GTX - Feb 03, 2025
Leading player in turbochargers (TB) with a strong duopoly alongside BWA.
TB are not use in battery electric vehicles (BEVs), thats the concern on terminal value.
Competitive Advantage: High-tech, mission-critical products with long-term customer contracts and high barriers to entry.
40% of business comes from commercial vehicles and aftermarket sales, unaffected by BEV transition.
Significant R&D spending on zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) technologies, expected to deliver results by 2030.
Aggressive share buybacks (one-third of shares retired since 2022) and manageable debt at 2x EBITDA.
Market concerns over BEV penetration, but actual adoption slowing, extending TB market longevity.
Adjusted Earnings: Excluding ZEV costs, “owner’s earnings” are $2.30 per share.
Expected to generate $1.5B FCF by 2030, with $3.50–$5.00 FCF per share depending on ZEV success.
Risk & Opportunity: ZEV success and slower BEV adoption could significantly boost valuation.
Valuation
Current Valuation: Trades at ~5x 2025 levered FCF with $600M EBITDA (2024) and $1.65 FCF per share.
If GTX re-rates to 10x 2025 EPS (in line with peers), price target is $17 per share.
SOURCES:
McIntyre Partnerships
https://www.mcintyrepartnerships.com/
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/08wmp784ks7j6i5u48a4m/McIntyre_Partnerships_Q4_2024_Letter.pdf?rlkey=m3k8qmj4rn0cedynuhry7t36e&e=1&st=xdda0upr&dl=0
https://twitter.com/Mc_Partnerships
Feb 03, 2025
Q4 2024
Star Holdings - $STHO - Feb 03, 2025
Liquidation Strategy: STHO aims to monetize assets and distribute proceeds to shareholders.
Major Assets: Holds 13.5M shares of SAFE (a REIT) and a portfolio of real estate, mainly in Asbury Park, NJ.
Asbury Park Properties: Includes two hotels, an entertainment venue, and 30 acres of beachfront land, all positioned for appreciation.
Investment Premise: As assets are sold, stock price is expected to align with NAV.
Valuation
Current Stock Price: $9 per share.
Estimated NAV: $28 per share, implying significant upside.
SAFE Stake Value: After debt, worth $10 per STHO share.
Real Estate Value: Booked at $14 per share, but likely higher with an extra $50M upside.
Liquidation Timeline: Expected to take 4 years, leading to an IRR of 33%.
Interest Rate Sensitivity: If rates drop, SAFE’s value could push STHO NAV to $40 per share.
SOURCES:
McIntyre Partnerships
https://www.mcintyrepartnerships.com/
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/08wmp784ks7j6i5u48a4m/McIntyre_Partnerships_Q4_2024_Letter.pdf?rlkey=m3k8qmj4rn0cedynuhry7t36e&e=1&st=xdda0upr&dl=0
https://twitter.com/Mc_Partnerships
Feb 03, 2025
Q4 2024
Vivid Seats Inc. - $SEAT - Feb 07, 2025
Company Overview
Leading U.S. secondary ticket marketplace for concerts, sports, and theater.
Holds ~20% market share with $4B in annual transaction volume.
Competes with StubHub and Ticketmaster.
Industry Landscape
U.S. live event ticketing is a $62B market (Primary: $45B, Secondary: $17B).
Ticket spending outpaces GDP growth and remains resilient.
Shift from album sales to live events drives long-term industry growth.
Competitive Advantages
Skybox ERP: Leading broker management software, used by 70% of brokers. Skybox integrates with Ticketmaster, StubHub, and Seatgeek
Vivid Seats Rewards: Only loyalty program in the industry, increasing repeat purchases.
White Label Platform: B2B partnerships (e.g., Capital One), driving $125M revenue.
Vegas.com Acquisition: Expands reach, introduces primary ticketing.
International Expansion: Entering a $5B+ secondary ticketing market.
Vivid Resale: Internal ticket brokerage with 100%+ ROIC.
Valuation
Went public via SPAC at 18.7x EV/EBITDA; now trades at 5.1x
Intrinsic value estimate: $9.19/share (183% upside).
Potential buyout scenarios:
Strategic buyer (StubHub, Seatgeek) to unlock synergies.
Private equity acquisition at 10x EBITDA (~$7.50/share).
Eldridge Industries, a major shareholder, could take it private.
Undervalued assets: Even if the core marketplace were worth zero, other segments justify a mid-teens multiple.
SOURCES:
Emeth Value Capital
https://www.emethvaluecapital.com/
https://www.emethvaluecapital.com/_files/ugd/b2ee4c_17e4e33398384e2881b862a7ad1732ab.pdf
Feb 07, 2025
Q4 2024
Citizens Bancshares - $CZBS - Feb 10, 2025
Atlanta-based bank with significant ECIP capital infusion.
Reduced share count by 10% over two years.
Positioned for acquisitions and organic growth.
Valuation:
Share price $51.15.
Annualized earnings run rate: ~$7.50 per share.
Trading at 7x earnings despite overcapitalization.
SOURCES:
Cedar Creek Partners
https://www.eriksencapitalmgmt.com/
https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5ea6570a0ba57d406203e048/t/67aa45122f0dde0a2161d224/1739212051218/2024+Results+for+Cedar+Creek+Partners.pdf
https://twitter.com/eriksen_tim
Feb 10, 2025
Q4 2024
ENDI Corp - $ENDI - Feb 10, 2025
Owns CrossingBridge Advisors (fixed-income asset manager).
AUM grew 30% in 2024, now $3.5B.
New fund raised $30M in four months.
Valuation:
Share price $11.43.
Annualized cash earnings: ~$1.30 per share.
Net cash & investments: ~$2.25 per share.
Trading at 7-8x earnings (net of cash).
Fair value estimate raised to $17.85-$21.75 per share.
SOURCES:
Cedar Creek Partners
https://www.eriksencapitalmgmt.com/
https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5ea6570a0ba57d406203e048/t/67aa45122f0dde0a2161d224/1739212051218/2024+Results+for+Cedar+Creek+Partners.pdf
https://twitter.com/eriksen_tim
Feb 10, 2025
Q4 2024
Zegona - $ZEG.l - Feb 16, 2025
Bought Vodafone Spain for €5B EV (5.3x EV/adj. EBITDaL) in Oct 2023, completed May 2024, mainly financed by debt and €300M equity + €900M redeemable preference shares at 150p/share.
Vodafone Stake in Zegona: 69% ownership via redeemable preference shares at 150p/share.
Strategic Goal: Reduce Vodafone’s stake to 0%, increasing minority ownership from 31% to 100% by repurchase this preference at 150p/share
Funding Plan (€2.2B needed):
◦ €1.4B dividend payout to all shareholders.
◦ €800M debt reduction (to meet covenants).
Capital Raising Strategy: Monetize fiber assets, selling FiberCo stakes (Telefónica JV: 37%→10%, MasOrange JV: 30%→10%) at 15x+ multiple.
FiberCo Sale Proceeds: Expected €2.3B–€2.5B to fund debt repayment and dividends.
Post-Transaction EBITDA: Estimated at €1.22B.
Market & Management:
Spanish telecom consolidated from 10 to 4 major players, stabilizing competition.
Experienced management with a proven telecom turnaround track record.
Management holds 7.5% (can increase to 15% via LTIP if shareholder returns succeed by Oct 2027).
Operational Strategy:
Cost-cutting (50% staff reduction) and pricing adjustments driving EBITDA and customer growth.
No mobile tower ownership; aims to renegotiate/exit Vantage Towers lease by 2028.
Asset-light, high-margin telecom model with near-term catalysts.
Valuation
Dividend Plan: £1.50 per share, reducing share count by 70%.
Stock Valuation Range: £16 (conservative) to £20–£25 (aggressive).
SOURCES:
Singular Asset Management
@gabcasla
@MomentumFinanc3
Feb 16, 2025
Q4 2024