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This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice; we recommend always verifying the ideas presented here and conducting your own research, as there may be errors in interpretation and translation.
Liberty Park Capital Management
http://www.libertyparkcapital.com/
Oct 31, 2024
Liberty Park Q3 2024 Letter on Seeking Alpha
Q3 2024
Investment Thesis on Xometry Inc. (XMTR)
Xometry Inc. operates a digital platform that connects buyers with suppliers for custom part manufacturing, including processes like 3D printing and CNC machining.
Digital Platform: Connects buyers and suppliers for custom part manufacturing with instant quoting powered by AI.
Extensive Network: The company’s network connects approximately 60,000 buyers with 3,500 suppliers.
Target Market: Estimated at $200 billion, with significant clients in government and technology sectors.
Margin Improvement: Gross margins have improved by +10% since the IPO, aided by advanced quoting algorithms.
Leadership and Growth: Strong growth under CEO Randy Altschuler’s leadership.
Valuation
Profitability Projection: Expected to reach profitability in the next year.
Long-term Revenue Potential: Exceeding $1 billion, with double-digit EBITDA margins.
Stock Price Appreciation: Potential for over 100% appreciation based on market comparables.
Gator Capital Management
https://gatorcapital.com/
https://twitter.com/gatorcapital
Oct 30, 2024
Gator Capital Q3 2024 Letter
Q3 2024
Investment Thesis on Chain Bridge Bancorp (CBNA):
Chain Bridge Bancorp provides specialized banking services for Republican political campaigns and political action committees (PACs), focusing on low-cost deposits.
Business Model: Focuses on low-cost deposits from political campaigns and PACs.
High Liquidity and Low Credit Risk: Favorable after the 2023 banking crisis.
Experienced Leadership: Prudent management approach.
Acquisition Potential: Attractive acquisition target due to its stable deposit franchise.
Cyclical Deposit Base: Deposits peak during presidential election years.
Valuation
IPO Price: $22 per share, with a tangible book value estimated at $21.50.
Franchise Value: Investors are essentially paying only for tangible assets, with no premium for the valuable deposit franchise.
Tangible Book Value: Belief that Chain Bridge will grow its tangible book value while awaiting broader recognition of its franchise value.
Maran Capital Management
https://marancapital.com/
https://twitter.com/Dan_Roller
Nov 02, 2024
Maran Capital Q3 2024 Letter on Seeking Alpha
Q3 2024
Investment Thesis on Clarus Corp (CLAR):
Clarus Corp manufactures and sells outdoor sports equipment and accessories, including brands such as Black Diamond Equipment and Rhino Rack/MAXTRAX.
Investment Opportunity: Current stock price does not reflect the true value of its brands and assets.
Sector: Outdoor sports equipment and accessories.
Key Brands: Black Diamond Equipment and Rhino Rack/MAXTRAX.
Financial Strength: Debt-free with a high cash balance.
Positioned for Recovery: Prepared for demand recovery and future expansion.
Valuation
Sum-of-the-Parts (SOTP) Value per Share: End-of-year net cash $2 + Real estate and PEIPS value in Salt Lake City $1 + Black Diamond Equipment and Rhino Rack/MAXTRAX $10-$15.
Total SOTP Value: Between $13 and $18.
Current Trading Price: $4, indicating a potential upside of 225% to 350%.
Third Avenue Value Fund
http://www.thirdave.com/
Sep 30, 2024
Third Avenue Q3 2024 Shareholder Letter
Q3 2024
Investment Thesis on Subaru Corporation (7270):
Subaru Corporation is a Japanese automaker known for its all-wheel-drive vehicles, particularly popular in the U.S.
Strong Financial Structure: Stable cash flow and share buyback program.
Loyal U.S. Customer Base: Enhances stability.
EV Transition Strategy: Collaborating with Toyota, maintaining flexibility and cost control in electric vehicle production.
Valuation
Market Cap: Approximately $13 billion, nearly equivalent to net cash and liquid assets (> $10 billion).
Undervalued Automotive Business: The market assigns almost zero value to the automotive business.
Operating Cash Flow: Generating $4.6 billion in annual operating cash flow, highlighting undervaluation according to Third Avenue.
Investment Thesis on Valaris (VAL) and Tidewater (TDW) according to Third Avenue Value Fund
The fund views Valaris and Tidewater as valuable opportunities in the offshore energy services sector, due to limited new build orders and expectations of rising service rates, which should significantly improve profitability in the sector.
No New Build Orders: Unlike other industrial cycles, there are no increases in new orders for offshore rigs and assets, reducing the risk of future oversupply.
Rate Increase Benefit: The scarcity of new orders implies that even in a scenario of rising rates, there would be no immediate pressure to expand capacity, benefiting Valaris and Tidewater in the medium and long term.
Third Avenue International Real Estate Value Fund
https://thirdave.com/
Sep 30, 2024
Third Avenue REIFX Shareholder Letter
Q3 2024
Investment Thesis on Vesta (Mexico) (VESTA)
Implied Cap Rate: 10%
Discount to NAV: Trading at a 30% discount to net asset value (NAV).
Investment Thesis on Sunevision Holdings (1686):
Sunevision Holdings is the leading data center operator and owner in Hong Kong, specializing in high-connectivity infrastructure to meet the rising digital demand in Asia.
Strategic Position: Key data center presence in Hong Kong, a market with high demand and space constraints.
Capacity Expansion: Increased capacity by 50% since 2018, with much of the space pre-leased, minimizing risks.
Competitive Advantage: Location and high entry barriers in a land-constrained environment.
Valuation
Trading at Less Than 50% of NAV: Significant discount to net asset value.
P/E Multiple: Below 10x, attractive compared to U.S. data center REITs.
Upside Potential: Considerable, with the current price below the real value of its assets and growth projections unrecognized by the market.
Investment Thesis on Genting Singapore (GENS):
Genting Singapore owns and operates Resorts World Sentosa, a resort complex in Singapore that includes a hotel, casino, and theme parks.
Strong Financial Position: Debt-free with high liquidity (35% of market cap in cash).
Expansion Potential: New planned facilities, including a luxury hotel and additional attractions.
Competitive Advantage: Casino exclusivity in Singapore until at least 2030.
Tourism Growth: Expected increase in tourists from China, Indonesia, India, Malaysia, and locals.
Valuation
Valuation Discount: Trading at a 6x EBITDA multiple versus 13x for Las Vegas Sands.
Asset Undervaluation: Current market price does not reflect the real value of its assets and growth potential.
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